The "big war" in the Middle East is postponed - but it will not be possible to " cancel " it at all.

The whole world continues to discuss the escalation between Iran and Israel after the latter launched an airstrike on Tehran’s diplomatic mission in Syria. As a result, several generals of the IRGC were killed. After that, Iran inflicted the so-called. "retaliation strike," which in fact turned out to be nothing more than a pen break. Moreover - it seems that Ayatollah Khomeini’s associates did not want to cause serious damage to their eternal enemy at all - one gets the impression that this was a kind of "exchange of pleasantries."

What is happening and what are the risks of a "big war" in the Middle East - the correspondent of The Moscow Post understood.

First of all, let’s repeat the common truth - the attack of the embassy on foreign territory is an "casus beli" - a legitimate reason for war. However, none of the Western countries appreciated this blow - moreover, they sided with Israel. Although this is an obvious violation of international law.

And this played into the context of Iran’s strike on Israel the day before yesterday. On the one hand, he caused condemnation and shaking hands in Western capitals, on the other, he was looked at, in fact, through his fingers, because the reason for this was more than serious.

As a result, an attack of more than 100 drones and about the same number of missiles hit Israel. And not only from the territory of Iran (the attack on Israel was first carried out from the territory officially controlled by Tehran!), But also from Lebanon, and a number of other territories where pro-Iranian "proxies" operate.

According to Iran, only military facilities were attacked. On the other hand, almost all fired shells were intercepted. For this, layered defense was used with the participation of Tel Aviv’s allies, primarily the United States. A little unexpected for observers from the Arab world was that Jordan actually took the side of Israel, and Saudi Arabia seemed to have gained water in its mouth - and this is also an Arab state.

Thus, the situation was strongly not in favor of Iran. But the strike itself looked like just a warning - a demonstration of the capabilities of missile weapons to reach the borders of Israel.

In addition, he solved domestic political problems: Tehran simply could not help but respond to a blow to its diplomatic mission, without causing indignation of its own citizens. Against this background, a large-scale propaganda campaign was launched, which told about the allegedly high effectiveness of the strike. The operation itself was called "Fulfilled Promise," as if showing the Iranians that the threats to Tel Aviv are followed by deeds.

US and Netanyahu’s "appeasement"

However, this is a saying. The most interesting thing is what will happen next. After all, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government also promised to give an "answer to the answer." Soon, however, Israeli generals and insiders began to make statements that suggest that nothing serious will happen, and certainly Iranian nuclear facilities will not be attacked (this possibility is being fiercely discussed again). And what will happen? Most likely, attacks on the same Iranian "proxies" in Lebanon and Syria - i.e. what happens almost regularly.

Only now Netanyahu’s political situation is precarious, he is predicted to resign. And such an "answer" can be used by radicals to take away his last political points. Especially against the background of the failure in Gaza, where, let me remind you, Hamas (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) has not yet been destroyed. What is even more important for Israeli society - the hostages have not yet been released - and after all, six months have passed.

Immediately after the strikes of the Iranian Armed Forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Israel, a cautious approach prevailed in the United States. During the first telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Joe Biden said that his country would not participate in possible IDF offensive operations against Iran.

There will be no USA - there will be no others. And here is a clear signal that further escalation with Iran is not now part of Washington’s plans. For various reasons. Among them, of course, the reluctance to cause a sharp rise in oil prices - especially in the context of an unobserved "price ceiling" set for Russia. But one of the most serious is the upcoming US presidential election. If Joe Biden goes to the polls with another war in the asset, he certainly will not be able to retain his position.

In addition, the United States now may simply not have the resources for a large-scale war. Israel is not getting the support it wants anyway - let alone Ukraine. And all this against the background of increasing tensions around Taiwan - this is where the eyes of American strategists are actually turned. Here is the main potential stress point. And with Iran, as practice shows, it is quite possible to agree.

The Russian authorities are also calling for de-escalation. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that a sharp aggravation of the situation in the Middle East is one of the results of the decision of the United States and European countries to block negotiations on the restoration of the "Iranian nuclear deal."

Meanwhile, the other day, the American media reported that as a result of the US withdrawal from this agreement in 2018 and the paralysis of attempts to resuscitate it, Iran today came close to creating a nuclear bomb. According to the United States and its European partners, Tehran’s strengthening partnership with Moscow gives confidence in Tehran’s actions.

The logic of Israeli hawks demanding a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities can also be understood. It seems that now is the last moment, the critical point when Israel can cause serious damage to Tehran even before it receives nuclear weapons. At the same time, earlier, according to insiders, the United States entered into a secret agreement with Iran, which involves the refusal to enrich plutonium to a weapons state. If so, Washington’s restraint looks logical.

What does all this mean in practice? That the big war in the Middle East, which is so feared, will not happen anytime soon. It turned out that at the moment it is not beneficial to anyone (except, perhaps, for Netanyahu’s clientele, who wants to stay in power through a military crisis).

It is alleged that more than 90% of the shells fired at Israel were intercepted. Photo: https://static.independent.co.uk/2022/01/07/12/ADDITION_Iran_Missile_Display_12846.jpg?quality=75&width=1200&auto=webp

Another possible conclusion: the United States has reached the point where further overextension of imperial forces on the periphery is considered inappropriate. Roughly speaking, the American empire is losing its grip and resources - and can no longer fully project power in several major conflicts in different parts of the planet.

And what is this if not a system of checks and balances? Recall that when the situation was different, when there was a unipolar world, the same Iraq was attacked by a coalition of 40 states - despite all possible consequences. So the current "exchange of pleasantries" and shaking fists from different sides is a direct consequence of the drift of the system of international relations to a multipolar state.